Last week saw Italy become part of the nationalist narrative in Europe after changes to their constitution were rejected. As a result the country’s Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, resigned and just today it was announced that Italy’s ex Foreign Minister, Paolo Gentiloni, had taken his place. It’s a position that will likely not last long, given the rise of the ‘Five Star Movement’ led by Beppe Grillo – promoted in the mainstream media as a ‘populist’ party – allied with the prospect of a general election within the next 12 months.
Before the Italian General Election, however, comes the next key political event within the EU – the French Presidential election – the first round of which is held on April the 23rd. If there is no majority result on the night, a run off election will be held two weeks later on May the 7th.
The contenders for President have yet to be all confirmed. Current President, Francois Hollande, recently announced he would not seek re-election, meaning the Socialist party he fronts will hold a decisive primary in January to decide who will stand as their representative.
The right of the political spectrum in France have their candidates lined up and ready. They being The Republicans Francois Fillon and the Front National’s Marine Le Pen.
Before we talk about Le Pen, let’s briefly look at who Francois Fillon is. From 2007 to 2012, he served as French Prime Minister under the presidency of Nicolas Sarkozy. He is classed as a ‘Social Conservative‘, and holds views such as disavowing equal marriage and adoption rights to LGBT couples. He has pledged to reform immigration and has taken a hard line on Islamic extremism with the publication of a book called, ‘Beating Islamic Totalitarianism‘. On the economic front, his outlook is liberal favouring pro business reforms and tax cuts.
Fillon’s Republicans party are marketed as centre right and pro European. Indeed, Fillon commented a few weeks ago about the need for Britain’s exit from the EU to be ‘serene but fast.’ This is not a man who as President would be championing France’s exit from the union.
A Marine Le Pen presidency would almost certainly advocate withdrawing France from the EU. Leader of the Front National, Le Pen and her party espouse – according to mainstream media – the ideologies of nationalism, protectionism and populism. Words that have now become synonymous with the votes for Brexit and Donald Trump. Front National are dubbed anti immigration, and most recently Le Pen was in the news for stating that under her presidency the children of illegal migrants in France would not receive free education. She said, ‘if you come to our country don’t expect to be taken care of, to be looked after, that your children will be educated without charge. No more playtime.‘
After Donald Trump won the US election, attention quickly turned to Marine Le Pen, and the possibility that she could surprise in the same way as Brexit and Trump and take victory. It’s important to remember that polling for either event said that neither Britain’s vote to leave the EU or Trump’s rise to president would happen.
French polling is currently saying similar in regards to Le Pen. Bruno Jeanbert, deputy managing director at Pollsters OpinionWay said, ‘I’d never say ‘never’ but I do think we have some advantages that our U.S. colleagues don’t. A Trump-style surprise is less likely here.’ Furthering that narrative are the words of Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank. ‘We are fairly confident that Le Pen will not win. Still, we need to monitor the political risks very closely.‘
Le Pen herself reacted with fervent positivity at the news of Trump’s win. Speaking at Front National’s headquarters, she hailed ‘a great movement across the world‘, which the Guardian reported on as Le Pen ‘heralding the dawn of a new world order’. Le Pen’s chief strategist, Florian Philippot, remarked that ‘Their world is collapsing, ours is being built.’
The Financial Times reported Le Pen as saying that, ‘This election should be interpreted as the victory of freedom. Let’s bet that it will give another reason for the French, who cherish freedom so much, to break with a system that hampers them.’
In the same article, Dominique Reynie, head of think-tank FondaPol, said, ‘The probability of Marine Le Pen’s election has increased with Brexit and now Trump’s election because they are giving more credibility to the radical, populist vote. What is possible in the US is possible in France, even if the system is refusing to see it.’
Whilst the mainstream try to keep people grounded within the false left / right paradigm, what goes unreported is of greater significance. In October, Zero Hedge published an article entitled, “Scenes From The Apocalypse” – Mass Immigration Ruins The Streets Of France. The basis for the article was around a video taken of the Avenue de Flandres, 19th Arrondissement, near the Stalingrad Metro Station in Paris. The video has subsequently been made unavailable by YouTube, but further copies are still up on the website. Including this one:
Here is an extract from Zero Hedge’s article:
If it weren’t for the somewhat working infrastructure, the scene might as well have been the setting of movie shooting – or a slum in Mogadishu. The streets are littered in garbage, the sidewalks are blocked with trash, junk and mattresses, thousands of African men claim the streets as their own – they sleep and live in tents like homeless people.
If no portable toilets are in reach, open urination and defecation are commonplace. Tens of thousands of homeless Illegal immigrants, undocumented or waiting for a decision of their asylum application, waste away trying to pass the time in the city. Although their prospects of being granted asylum as Africans are bleak, they’re hoping for a decision that would grant them an apartment, welfare and make France their new home.
The conditions are absolutely devastating. The police have given up trying to control these areas, the remaining French people avoid the areas at all cost, crime and rape is rampant, just recently mass brawls and riots made the news as fights broke out near the Stalingrad metro station.
Outside of immigration is a story which has also failed to gain much attention. Yesterday it was announced that France’s state of emergency, which has been in place ever since the attacks on Paris in November 2015, is to be renewed for a second time at the end of January. The extension will last until July the 15th 2017, meaning the entire presidential election campaign will be contested under a recurring state of emergency.
French Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve told reporters that ‘The state of emergency is “essential” and has proven efficient in thwarting attacks. The terrorism threat risk remains at a “high level,” and risks may increase as candidates campaign for office.’
Cazeneuve also said that ‘the special measures have helped stop 17 potential terrorist attacks this year in France’, declining to be specific in his assertion that terrorist plots had been foiled.
Much of the reason behind this state of emergency comes from continual rhetoric talking up the prospect of further attacks in France. Gilles de Kerchove, who is an EU ‘Counter-Terrorism Coordinator’, was quoted back in September as saying that, ‘Islamic State is using the flow of migrants to infiltrate fighters, by using forged documents. We fear that Daesh might step-by-step move to other modus operandi. Car bombs might be one. We know how much they learn how to build vehicle-borne improvised explosive device. And there is a concern as well on the use of chemical weapons.’
Again, no evidence was presented by Kerchove to back up his claims.
The question to ask at this point is who benefits from the continuation of a state of emergency and the constant spectre of future terrorist attacks. Both Francois Fillon and Marine Le Pen have spoken out about the need to curb immigration, which Gilles de Kerchove alleged himself as having a direct impact on the danger of more atrocities. Between now and the elections, should France become the stage for a further false flag event – as witnessed last year and again in Nice this year – it would lend more weight to Le Pen’s campaign to be President.
Fillon is the more moderate candidate between the two. Some of his views are in relative accordance with Le Pen, but what should be remembered here is that Fillon is firmly an establishment candidate. Being a former Prime Minister sets him apart from Le Pen, who has never held high office.
But always keep in mind how much the narrative playing out before us ties in with the advance of nationalism. It is my belief that the results of Brexit and the US election were orchestrated deliberately towards a rise in anti globalist sentiment – a concept I have written about previously in detail. For the EU to become a bedrock for ‘populism’, France or Germany must fall to the growing anti establishment, anti globalism tide.
One potential aspect to the French elections I will be watching closely for is the movements and dialogue emanating from the Bank for International Settlements. This is the bank which met during the Brexit vote and on the day of the US election back in November. I believe they have presided over the growth of nationalism as a cover for an impending economic collapse. Whether they meet in the run up to the Presidential votes remains to be seen.
The rise of nationalism will not be restricted to Brexit, Trump or the Italian constitution referendum. This is a narrative that will grow in 2017 – with victories for and victories against. Based on the evidence available to me, I think it is most likely that France will install Le Pen as president.
With the ECB’s announcement last week of tapering their Quantitative Easing programme, and the rising fear of the world’s oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi, being close to collapse without state aid, any more ‘political shocks’ will serve only to fracture the union further to the point where the likes of France and Italy may hold in/out referendums of their own. A concept that may be unthinkable today but could quite easily become reality tomorrow.